Tampa - Mississippi State closes out its season today as they'll take on Illinois in the ReliaQuest Bowl.
The two 8-4 teams couldn't be any more different, and that's what makes bowl season so fun. Seeing teams from different conferences with conflicting styles battle it out on the field makes things interesting, and that's what we've got today with Illinois' ground-and-pound offense against Mississippi State's Air Raid.
1. Win the trenches
The Mississippi State defense has been stout against the run this season and most recently held Ole Miss, one of the top rushing teams in college football, to their lowest rushing total of the season with 15 tackles for loss.
Like the Rebels, Illinois is a team that is predicated on pounding the rock. The difference is the style of running the Illini use is way different than the shotgun offenses of the SEC, as they're constantly under center and using two tight end sets.
The 3-3-5 defense that Zach Arnett runs isn't typically seen against Big Ten offenses, so the Bulldogs need to be physical up front.
The good news is the opt-outs work in Mississippi State's favor. Illinois will be without its All-American running back Chase Brown, who declared for the NFL Draft, while the Bulldogs will be loaded up front.
Cameron Young and Randy Charlton are playing despite turning pro next season, while Jaden Crumedy is set to return after a fantastic finish to the 2022 regular season. Two of the SEC's leading tacklers in Nathaniel Watson and Jett Johnson will also be in at linebacker for the Bulldogs, which should help them shut down Illinois' inexperienced running backs.
2. Take advantage of a depleted secondary
Speaking of Illinois opt-outs, they've got a couple more in the secondary that could be crucial going against Mississippi State's Air Raid attack.
Devon Witherspoon, an All-American cornerback and Thorpe award finalist, and Chase Brown's brother Sydney Brown, an All-Big Ten safety, are both headed to the NFL, giving Illinois some big question marks in the defensive backfield.
We all know that Mississippi State is going to throw the ball. After all, it is what they do, but a depleted secondary could allow Will Rogers to create some big plays in the passing game.
What remains to be seen is how Illinois plans to defend Mississippi State's offense. The Illini were a team that played a lot of man coverage, but with Brown and Witherspoon out and defensive coordinator Ryan Walters off to Purdue to be the Boilermakers' new head coach, they could opt to play more conservatively with a drop-eight defense.
Rogers has been successful in picking apart drop-eight defenses this season due to his patience in the pocket. Whether it's a zone drop eight or the Illini's typical man coverage, the important thing for Rogers will be recognizing the coverages and finding the weaknesses in the depleted Illinois secondary.
3. Receivers step up
Unfortunately for Mississippi State, they won't have a couple of its offensive leaders, with WR Rara Thomas and RB Dillon Johnson hitting the transfer portal.
The duo of Jo'quavious Marks and Simeon Price should be able to hold things down in the backfield, but they're going to have to find someone to step up in Thomas' absence.
The Bulldogs should have some serious size on the outside today to help create some mismatches. 6'5" Caleb Ducking led the team with eight touchdowns this season and should have his name called upon today, while 6'4" Justin Robinson should see increased action with Thomas gone.
Robinson, a Georgia transfer, impressed in a reserve role with 245 yards and two touchdowns this season backing up Ducking at Z, but he could get a big opportunity filling in for Thomas an X today. Robinson being the big body threat that Thomas was on the outside, will be important for stretching the Illinois defense.
