As we approach the MLB Draft, many college baseball fans are trying to figure out which of their signees will make it to campus, and which will opt to turn pro. It's no different for Mississippi State, who will be watching closely at what top signees Colin Houck, Aidan Smith, Dylan Cupp, and Mikhai Grant decide to do.
We tend to remember the future big league studs like Hunter Renfroe, Brent Rooker, and Nathaniel Lowe who starred at Dudy Noble Field in recent years, but we often forget about the ones that got away.
Since 2009, the year John Cohen was named head coach, Mississippi State has lost 22 commitments to the MLB Draft and the careers of those players have greatly differed. Some guys never even make it to Double-A, while others like Braves third baseman Austin Riley have reached the peak of the sport, winning the World Series.
Riley, along with Giants right-hander Keaton Winn, are the only two players on the list to get to live the dream of playing in The Show. A few other recent draft picks like James Wood and Blaze Jordan seem to be on the right trajectory, but at such a low hit rate, it really goes to show how difficult the path from high school baseball to the major leagues really is.
On the contrary, 17 players dating back to the 2009 recruiting class have made the Major Leagues after playing college ball at Mississippi State. Nine of those players have played at least four big league seasons, with recent callups J.P. France and Jordan Westburg likely to add to that list in time. Brent Rooker, Brandon Woodruff, and Adam Frazier have been named All-Stars while Nathaniel Lowe owns an American League Silver Slugger award.
I'm not here to judge the decisions that these athletes have made, but the overwhelming evidence suggests that college ball might be the better path to the pros.
2022
Jett Williams - SS - Round 1, Pick 14 by New York Mets
Signing Bonus: $3.9 million
Williams was drafted just last year and is off to a solid start to his minor league career. While he’s only hitting .228 in Single-A, he’s got an on-base percentage over .400 and has swiped 23 bags this season. Currently ranked as the Mets #3 prospect, Williams’ high walk rate and speed should give him a chance at making the bigs.
2021
Maddux Bruns - LHP - Round 1, Pick 29 by Los Angeles Dodgers
Signing Bonus: $2.2 million
The Dodgers’ #16 prospect struggled in 2022 but has started to figure it out this season. Bruns posted a 1.29 ERA in six Single-A starts, and owns a 2.52 ERA in ten High-A starts with 48 strikeouts in 35.2 innings. He’ll have to improve his command as he’s walking 7.8 per nine innings, but the lefty with a fastball topping at 98 should have a good shot at progressing through one of the best organizations in baseball.
James Wood - OF - Round 2, Pick 62 by San Diego Padres
Signing Bonus: $2.6 million
Wood was the crown jewel prospect that the Nationals landed in last summer’s Juan Soto trade and he looks to be a future star in the making. The 6’6”, 240-pounder has tons of raw power, and has posted a .262/.360/.520 slash line with 14 home runs and 57 RBI across High-A and Double-A this season. He hit cleanup for the National League in Saturday’s All-Star Futures Game and a 2024 call-up isn’t out of the question.
Jordan McCants - SS - Round 3, Pick 88 by Miami Marlins
Signing Bonus: $800,000
McCants, who’s brother T.J. took the college route and has started in the outfield at Ole Miss, has struggled during his time in the minor leagues. In 133 minor league games across Rookie League and Single-A, he’s hit for a .241/.313/.310 slash line with just one home run while striking out 148 times to 52 walks. He is not ranked in the Marlins’ Top 30 prospect rankings.
2020
Austin Hendrick - OF - Round 1, Pick 12 by Cincinnati Reds
Signing Bonus: $4 million
The Reds made a major investment into Hendrick that hasn’t quite paid off yet. The #19 prospect in the Cincinnati organization is in High-A this season and has played in 76 games. He’s posted just a .217/.282/.318 slash line, with six home runs, 24 walks, and 107 strikeouts.
Blaze Jordan - 3B - Round 3, Pick 89 by Boston Red Sox
Signing Bonus: $1.75 million
The #10 prospect in the Red Sox organization, Jordan seems primed for a Double-A promotion very soon. In 71 High-A games this season, Jordan is slashing .325/.385/.525 with 21 doubles and 11 home runs. Jordan has the power that many teams are looking for in a third baseman, and he seems to be on a steady path to a potential big league promotion in a few years.
2019
Ethan Hearn - C - Round 6, Pick 192 by Chicago Cubs
Signing Bonus: $950,000
In four minor league seasons, Hearn hasn’t made it past High-A. This season Hearn is hitting just .173 with 13 walks and 57 strikeouts. He is not ranked in the Cubs’ Top 30 prospect rankings.
Jared Johnson - RHP - Round 14, Pick 427 by Atlanta Braves
Signing Bonus: $257,000
Johnson missed the 2022 season with Tommy John surgery but has shown some promise in 2023. At the Single-A level, Johnson has a 4.19 ERA in 38.2 innings but has struck out an impressive 58 during that span with a .224 batting average against. The knock on Johnson is his command, having walked 6.8 per nine innings, but he profiles as an arm that should at least make the upper levels of the minor leagues. He is not ranked in the Braves’ Top 30 prospect rankings.
2018
Jeremiah Jackson - SS - Round 2, Pick 57 by Los Angeles Angels
Signing Bonus: $1.194 million
The Angels’ #13 prospect has spent the past two seasons in Double-A, posting a .230/.316/.416 slash line with 25 home runs in 152 games at the level. Jackson profiles as a middle infielder who could make his way to The Show, but staying there will be a different challenge.
Keaton Winn - RHP - Round 5, Pick 137 by San Francisco Giants
Signing Bonus: $500,000
The only junior college commit on the list, Winn is also one of only two on the list to make the big leagues. He made his debut for the Giants last month and earned a save in his first career appearance against the Cardinals. Wynn has posted a 4.09 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 22 innings while being used both as a starter and a reliever.
Regi Grace - RHP - Round 10, Pick 304 by Minnesota Twins
Signing Bonus: $350,000
Grace has progressed steadily throughout the lower levels and made the jump to Double-A earlier this season. Grace had a 1.16 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 23.1 High-A innings, and owns a 4.02 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 15.2 Double-A innings. He is not ranked in the Twins’ Top 30 prospect rankings.
Bryce Bush - 3B - Round 33, Pick 978 by Chicago White Sox
Signing Bonus: $290,000
Bush hasn’t appeared in a minor league game since 2021 and hasn’t played a full season since 2019. For his career, Bush appeared in 118 games and batted .226 with nine home runs.
2017
Quentin Holmes - OF - Round 2, Pick 64 by Cleveland Indians
Signing Bonus: $988,970
Holmes was released by Cleveland last summer and has yet to be picked up by another club. For his career, Holmes appeared in 243 games and hit .190 with ten home runs.
Bryce Hutchinson - RHP - Round 12, Pick 367 by New York Mets
Signing Bonus: $360,000
Hutchinson hasn’t played since 2021, a season where he was released by both the Mets and White Sox. He peaked in Single-A and had a 3.57 ERA in 123.2 career innings, but wasn’t able to overcome a few injuries.
2016
Walker Robbins - OF - Round 5, Pick 166 by St. Louis Cardinals
Signing Bonus: $450,000
Robbins hasn’t appeared in a game since 2018 and was released by the Cardinals in 2020. He peaked in Single-A and hit for a career average of .170 with two home runs in 108 games.
2015
Austin Riley - 3B - Competitive Balance Round A, Pick 41 by Atlanta Braves
Signing Bonus: $1.6 million
Riley is without a doubt the most accomplished player on this list. He made his MLB Debut in 2019 and has two All-Star appearances, one Silver Slugger, and two top-ten finishes in MVP voting. He was a major part of Atlanta's 2021 World Series Championship, and earned a 10-year, $212 million dollar contract extension. For his career, Riley has an OPS of .834 with 113 home runs.
Gray Fetner - RHP - Round 7, Pick 223 by Baltimore Orioles
Signing Bonus: $1 million
Fetner has bounced around the minor leagues, having spent time with the Orioles, Giants, and now the Yankees’ Double-A affiliates. He’s been at the level since 2021, making 53 appearances and 30 starts with a 5.26 ERA in 159 innings. He is not ranked in the Marlins’ Top 30 prospect rankings.
Greg Pickett- OF - Round 8, Pick 234 by Philadelphia Phillies
Signing Bonus: $350,000
Pickett played his last minor league game in 2018 and peaked in Single-A. For his career, he hit .227 with eight home runs in 102 games.
2014
Chase Vallot - C - Competitive Balance Round A, Pick 40 by Kansas City Royals
Signing Bonus: $1.35 million
Vallot made his last appearance in 2019 and where he played in High-A. That season, he hit .190 with 14 home runs in 82 games, and he hit for a career average of .212 with 75 home runs in 481 games.
Dale Burdick - 2B - Round 40, Pick 1,195 by New York Mets
Signing Bonus: $150,000
Burdick reached Triple-A in 2017 where he played nine games, but he spent the majority of his career in the lower levels. In 289 career games, Burdick hit .193 with 13 home runs.
2013
Cord Sandberg - OF - Round 3, Pick 89 by Philadelphia Phillies
Signing Bonus: $775,000
Sandberg was a four-star quarterback recruited by Dan Mullen who turned down being a two-sport college athlete for professional baseball. He reached Double-A in 2018 and hit .231 in 54 games that season. That fall, he enrolled at Auburn where he spent three seasons as a backup quarterback before finishing his football career at Eastern Kentucky.
2012
Will DuPont - 2B - Round 16, Pick 505 by Toronto Blue Jays
Signing Bonus: $105,000
DuPont played in only 47 minor leagues, never making it out of Rookie Ball. He had a career batting average of .242 and last played in 2014.
2009-2011
Mississippi State did not lose any players to the draft despite five players hearing their names called. The most notable was Brandon Woodruff, a 2011 fifth round pick who opted to come to school and has spent seven seasons with the Milwaukee Brewers with two All-Star appearances.
