Mississippi State basketball has hit a critical point in the season.
Currently in Joe Lunardi’s First Four Out, the Bulldogs sit at 47 in the NET rankings with only one quad-one victory—State’s home win over Alabama on January 15.
MSU has a stellar 12-1 home record but is one of two teams in the SEC (Georgia) with zero road victories on the year. These road losses include a blown lead against Florida and a hard-fought, overtime loss to Kentucky at Rupp Arena. On the flip side of those, however, are a double-digit loss to Ole Miss and a 26-point bludgeoning at the hands of Texas Tech.
On the outside-looking-in of the NCAA Tournament, Mississippi State now begins the most important four-game stretch of the season. For the Bulldogs to have any legitimate shot at the Big Dance, it is imperative they get at least one victory.
MSU’s next four opponents have an average NET ranking of 22.5; three are in quad one. The most daunting fact is that three of these games are on the road.
Tonight starts with Arkansas in Fayetteville. State commenced conference play with a dominant win over the Razorbacks in late December, and Ben Howland has taken three of the last four meetings in Bud Walton Arena. State will face a different team than it did earlier in the season, however, as Arkansas is on a seven-game winning streak.
Possibly the most likely chance for a Bulldog victory is February 9 against Tennessee in Humphrey Coliseum. The Volunteers have been a consistent top-25 team with three quad-one wins, but they haven’t played consistently-sound basketball this season. Playing the Big Orange at The Hump, where Ben Howland has defeated Rick Barnes twice in the past, could be a big advantage for State.
Baton Rouge hosts the Bulldogs next Saturday. LSU is a talented team that has been ranked throughout the season, but they’re on a down stretch. The Tigers have lost five of their last six games, including a home loss to an inferior Ole Miss team this past Tuesday. Despite these struggles, LSU remains 15 in the current NET rankings, so it can still be a massive opportunity for State.
The final team in this gauntlet is the club that gave State their biggest win of the season so far, Alabama. Ben Howland hasn’t won in Coleman Coliseum since his first season, and the Crimson Tide have lost just one game there this season— to the number-one team in the land, Auburn. Bama has a remarkable six wins over quad-one teams, so despite State’s win earlier this year, it’ll be an extremely tall task for MSU in Tuscaloosa.
Mississippi State needs to make a move for a ticket into the NCAA Tournament. For the program to take a turn and head into a positive direction, they need an upset win or two. These next four games are four massive opportunities to do just that.
