Year two of the Chris Jans era at Mississippi State begins Wednesday night in Chicago, as they'll tip off the season against Arizona State in the Barstool Invitational.
Expectations are high for the 2023-24 campaign, as Jans took the Bulldogs to the NCAA Tournament during his first season at the helm, though they'd fall to Pittsburgh in the First Four. MSU returns all five starters from last year's team, and made some improvements on the recruiting trail to help an offense that struggled from the outside,
Here are my predictions for who will lead Mississippi State in six key statistical categories:
Points Per Game: Tolu Smith
Tolu Smith is widely considered to be one of the top big men in the SEC this season and he finished as the Bulldogs' only double-figure scorer a year ago with 15.7 points per game.
The graduate used his impressive footwork and soft touch around the rim to score over 20 points nine times, and his offensive rebounding ability gave him numerous put back opportunities on his way to 12 double-doubles.
Smith is the clear focal point of the Mississippi State offense, but they're unfortunately going to have to operate without him until January due to a foot injury he suffered in practice last month.
In his absence the Bulldogs will be asked to rely more on their guard play. Marshall transfer Andrew Taylor could be the piece the Bulldogs were missing in the backcourt last season. He's an experienced playmaker who can fill it up from all three levels, which could see Smith's role slightly decrease upon his return.
The two-man game between Smith and Taylor will certainly be one to watch later this season, as Taylor averaged 4.7 assists per game. His quick trigger and tight handle could make the Smith-Taylor pick and roll tough to defend, which could help Smith be more efficient around the rim even if he's taking less shots.
Prediction: 14.8 points per game
Assists Per Game: Andrew Taylor
As I mentioned earlier, Taylor is a do-it-all point guard who put up big-time numbers last at Marshall season.
The graduate transfer averaged 20.2 points and 4.7 assists on his way to an All-Sun Belt First Team selection. He's someone expected to have the ball in his hands a lot, whether that shooting a pull-up jumper off a screen or using those actions to set up his teammates.
While his usage with the Bulldogs won't be as high as it was with the Thundering Herd, the Bulldogs lacked a consistent perimeter threat last season which should see the 6-foot-3 guard run the show for the Bulldogs.
Mississippi State also returns graduate Dashawn Davis who dished out 3.5 assists per game after leading the Pac-12 with 5.5 during his time at Oregon State. Davis is still ramping up from an offseason injury, which could see him take on a smaller workload early in the season, but his presence gives the Bulldogs two viable playmakers.
Prediction: 3.9 assists per game
Rebounds Per Game: Tolu Smith
Not much needs to be said about Smith's ability to grab the ball off the glass.
The 6-foot-11 center has been Mississippi State's leading rebounder two of the past three seasons, and led the SEC in 2020-21 with 8.5. He's a big body that can seal off anybody he goes against defensively, and his high motor gives him extra chances on the offensive glass.
Behind Smith is 6-foot-10 Jimmy Bell, who started every game for West Virginia last season, and the production Bell needs to get on the boards might be even more important than what was lost offensively.
Bell is a physical player who comes from a football background and should be able to hold his own while Smith is sidelined. He hauled in 5.2 rebounds per game for the Mountaineers despite playing only 18.5 minutes per game, which doesn't put him far behind Smith in the rebounds per 40 minutes category. Bell's upgraded rebounding ability compared to what the Bulldogs had in backup center Will McNair should take some pressure off Smith when he returns.
Prediction: 7.9 rebounds per game
Steals Per Game: Shakeel Moore
Shakeel Moore has a streaky offensive game, but you know you're getting a maximum effort player on the defensive end of the floor.
The 6-foot-1 senior has quick hands and feet that have helped him become one of the best perimeter defenders in the SEC. Moore has led the team in steals in each of the previous two seasons, swiping 1.6 per game as a sophomore and 1.7 as a junior.
His defensive ability at the point of attack not only created turnovers for the opponent, but it helped the Bulldogs hold teams to below 40% from the field and rank #9 nationally in defensive efficiency according to KenPom.
Prediction: 1.6 steals per game
Blocks Per Game: Cameron Matthews
As elite as Mississippi State's defense was last season, one department they were lacking in was blocked shots. The Bulldogs didn't have a single player who averaged over 1.0 blocks per game, but Cameron Matthews is the type of athlete who could take his defense to the next level this season.
The senior wing is the ultimate glue guy. He's a switchable defender who can disrupt passing lanes, get physical, and play above the rim. The Bulldogs don't have a prototypical rim protector in their roster, most blocked shots will be chase downs from athletes like Matthews, who could see some action as a small-ball five with Smith sidelined.
Prediction: 0.8 blocks per game
Three-point percentage: Andrew Taylor
Mississippi State's new additions addressed its biggest flaw from last year's team: three point shooting,
The Bulldogs ranked dead last in Division I with a 26.6 three-point percentage, so getting some shooters was imperative. Taylor comes over after shooting 36.4% from three-point range at Marshall last season, while freshmen Josh Hubbard and Adrian Myers and juco transfer Trey Fort have also shown promise as outside shooters.
Myers may have the purest jump shot on the roster, but minutes might be tough to come by as the forward prepares his body for the next level. Hubbard and Fort are both score-first guards who aren't afraid to pull the trigger, but some inconsistency is expected as they transition to D1 ball which is why I'll go with Taylor.
Taylor has not only proven he can hit shots at the D1 level, he's done so with a large sample size. He's taken 614 three-point shots in his career and has connected on 35.5% of them, He surpassed the 40% mark as a sophomore, shooting 41.6% on 77 attempts.
The graduate transfer showcased a quick and smooth release during Mississippi State's three-game foreign tour in Portugal, and has looked comfortable shooting off the dribble and off the catch.
Prediction: 36.3%
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