Mississippi State kicks off the Chris Jans era tonight as they'll welcome Texas A&M Corpus Christi to The Hump for the season opener.
Jans takes over a team with some familiar faces, but the roster as a whole is constructed differently than the 2021-22 squad, which means we could see some different players lead the charge for the Bulldogs this season.
Here are my predictions for who will lead Mississippi State in six key statistical categories.
Points Per Game: Tolu Smith
Bulldog big man Tolu Smith finished second on the team in scoring at 14.2 points per game, and with All-SEC guard Iverson Molinar moving on to the NBA G-League, Smith could be poised for even greater scoring numbers.
The 6'11" center's scoring improved towards the end of last season as he put up over 20 in four of his last seven games, averaging 19.0 points through that stretch. Smith's impressive size and soft touch around the basket make him an easy choice to lead the team and scoring, and he could be the beneficiary of a new system.
It's a very different look for the Bulldogs this season. Head Coach Chris Jans will likely run more pick-and-roll than what we saw with Ben Howland and the addition of former Oregon State point guard Dashawn Davis could make a good combo for the Bulldogs.
Davis is very much a pass-first point guard which is different than what we saw with Molinar who was primarily a scorer. Davis led the Pac-12 in assists last season and we could see him form a nice two-man game with Smith for some easy buckets.
Prediction: 16.8 PPG
Assists Per Game: Dashawn Davis
As I just mentioned, Davis led the Pac-12 with 5.5 assists at Oregon State last season, and the senior is expected to run the show at point guard for Chris Jans this season.
The Bronx (NY) native has a tight handle and is effective at navigating traffic to find an open cutter. Davis loves to play in the pick-and-roll on the wing, where he can step into a 15-foot jump shot or find the roller for a layup.
Davis excels the most as a passer on the fastbreak, where he can exploit a 3-on-2 or 2-on-1 by hitting a wing filling the lane or a shooter in the corner. Mississippi State likely won't be a super fast-paced team, but Davis will make the most of the opportunities that are there.
Prediction: 5.2 APG
Rebounds Per Game: Tolu Smith
It seems like an easy choice to pick the guy who led the entire SEC in rebounding two seasons ago. As a redshirt sophomore, Smith grabbed 8.5 rebounds per game, but they went down a bit last season with the addition of Garrison Brooks.
The duo of Brooks and Smith combined for 13.1 rebounds per game, and they helped Mississippi State be the 18th-best offensive-rebounding team in the country, according to KenPom. Smith accounted for 6.5 of those rebounds per game and was doing it while playing banged up for most of the season.
Now Smith is healthy and Brooks has moved on to the NBA G-League, which could see Smith dominate the boards for MSU this season. Southern Miss transfer Tyler Stevenson could also be heavily involved as he snagged 7.5 per game in Conference USA last season, but Smith is still the alpha of the frontcourt players and should be amongst the top of the conference in rebounding.
Prediction: 7.8 rebounds per game
Steals Per Game: Cameron Matthews
Junior Cameron Matthews is the definition of a glue guy.
The 6'7" forward is built like an outside linebacker and is one of the toughest players on the team. He's not going to contribute much offensively outside of some dunks on the fast break, but he'll be active in the passing lanes deflecting balls and grabbing steals.
Last season the Olive Branch (Miss.) native averaged 1.3 steals in only 18 minutes a game, which was 2nd on the team behind Shakeel Moore but led the team in steals per 40 minutes. Matthews is a perfect fit for Chris Jans' style of play due to his toughness on the defensive end, and it could mean we see Matthews' minutes in the 23-25 range, which would give him more opportunities to be a pest for the opponent.
Prediction: 1.9 steals per game
Blocks Per Game: Tyler Stevenson
One of the pieces Mississippi State was missing last season was a true rim protector and they may have found one in Southern Miss transfer Tyler Stevenson.
The Bulldogs' leading shot blocker was Garrison Brooks at 0.8 per game and they don't return any players who averaged more than 0.5 so adding a player like Stevenson who averaged 1.1 blocks will be a nice piece to have this season.
It's unclear what Stevenson's role will be this season as he'll battle Cameron Matthews for minutes at the power forward spot and their use could fluctuate depending on matchups but Stevenson will certainly be the guy to help defend some of the taller teams this season.
Prediction: 1.0 blocks per game
3-Point Percentage: Eric Reed Jr.
We'll have to wait and see if Chris Jans has Eric Reed Jr. in the starting lineup or as a sixth man off the bench, but there's one thing we know he could do, and that's shoot.
The Southeast Missouri State transfer lit it up in his two seasons with the Redhawks, making 39.8% of his three-pointers. A near 40% shooter was something Mississippi State greatly missed last season, as Garrison Brooks led the team at 34.2% and was the only player over 32%.
Reed will likely share minutes with Shakeel Moore at shooting guard, and we could also see him in some three-guard lineups with point guards like Dashawn Davis and Jamel Horton, who are both pass-first guards.
Playing with some playmaking point guards could see Reed get some open looks and help him knock down some open looks.
Prediction: 38.4%