Mike Leach in Year Three - 2002 Texas Tech and 2022 Mississippi State
2022 will be an important year for Mike Leach and Mississippi State.
Entering his third season in Starkville, Leach returns most of his starters from a team that saw drastic improvement from the year prior. In 2021, the Bulldogs defeated three ranked teams while seeing their offensive points-per-game ranking move up from 110th nationally in 2020 to 60th the next season.
However, despite these improvements, State is being overlooked headed into this upcoming fall. They face a daunting schedule that includes the usual suspects from the SEC West, in addition to a road test at Kentucky and a home challenge with Georgia.
Mississippi State is seen by some as a wild card in the SEC this year. They return a multitude of starting production but can they overcome the seemingly never-ending string of landmines they face throughout their schedule?
To help answer this question, we can look to the past. We can look back at a season with a plethora of parallels to this year’s Bulldogs. We can go back two decades to another program led by Mike Leach, the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
2001 Texas Tech and 2021 Mississippi State
Mike Leach completed his second season as head coach at Texas Tech in 2001. That year, the Red Raiders went 7-5, 4-4 in the Big 12 with a loss to Iowa in the Alamo Bowl.
Fast forward 20 years to 2021, when Mike Leach completed his second season as head coach at Mississippi State. That year, the Bulldogs went 7-6, 4-4 in the SEC with a loss to Texas Tech in the Liberty Bowl.
The parallels between the programs in year two under Mike Leach are already visible. However, they don’t stop there.
Texas Tech faced five ranked opponents in 2001, finishing with a 2-3 record in those games. The 2021 Bulldogs also faced five ranked opponents, one-upping Leach’s former program by putting together a 3-2 record.
Both teams suffered a questionable loss during the regular season. In 2001, with a 2-1 record, Texas Tech lost to Kansas in a 34-31 double-overtime thriller. The Jayhawks would finish that season 3-8 with their lone conference win coming over Leach’s team. In 2021, with a 2-0 record, Mississippi State lost to Memphis in a 31-29 contest. The Tigers would finish that season 6-6, their fewest number of wins in single season since 2013.
The postseason didn’t treat them well either. Going 7-4 in the regular season, Texas Tech received an invitation to the Alamo Bowl to face Iowa, who entered the game at 6-5. Despite being 11.5-point favorites, Tech fell to the Hawkeyes. 20 years later, going 7-5 in the regular season, Mississippi State was invited to the Liberty Bowl to face Texas Tech, who entered the game at 6-6. Despite being 10-point favorites, State fell to Leach’s former program.
Despite these head-scratching defeats, Tech and State strung together some impressive victories. The 2001 Red Raiders won two games over ranked teams, defeating #24 Kansas State and #24 Texas A&M. The 2021 Bulldogs took down three ranked foes—road wins at #15 Texas A&M and #17 Auburn, plus a home triumph over #12 Kentucky.
Despite two decades difference, both programs had borderline identical seasons in year two under Mike Leach. Just like the current Bulldogs, year three in Lubbock hoped to be a greater leap forward as they returned plenty of starting production.
Comparing Returning Production
Entering 2002, Texas Tech brought back a vast array of starters on the offensive side of the ball.
Leading the Red Raider offense was Kliff Kingsbury, who entered his third season as the starting quarterback. In addition to Kingsbury were four receivers who caught at least 30 passes in 2001, plus three starters on the offensive line.
This season for Mississippi State, Will Rogers returns for his third season as starting quarterback. Furthermore, the Bulldogs bring back four players who caught at least 30 passes a year ago, in addition to three starting offensive linemen.
State has an advantage headed into 2022 that Tech didn’t in 2002—running backs. The Red Raiders lost their starting running back headed into Leach’s third season, but State returns a duo of productive backs, Jo’quavious Marks and Dillon Johnson. In addition to getting 195 touches between them on the ground, they combined to catch 148 passes for 924 yards and four touchdowns in 2021.
Texas Tech’s Offensive Improvement
Texas Tech capitalized on their returning offensive production. In 2001, Leach’s crew averaged 33.5 points per game, which ranked 22nd nationally. The next season, they averaged 38.4 points per game, ranking sixth nationally—a 16-spot improvement from the year prior.
This improvement was due in large part to the production of Kliff Kingsbury, whose 2002 season was one of the best in college football.
In 2001, Kingsbury completed 365 passes in 529 attempts for 3,502 yards with 25 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He finished the year with a 69.0% completion percentage, in addition to 9.6 yards per completion.
Move ahead one season, 2002, in which Kingsbury completed 479 passes in 712 attempts for 5,017 yards with 45 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. His completion percentage was 67.3% with 10.5 yards per completion.
His improvement included 1,515 more yards, 20 more touchdowns, and a 0.9-yard increase per completion.
His completion percentage decreased and his number of interceptions increased, most likely due to his taking 183 more attempts and throwing more passes downfield (as is noted by his yards-per-completion increase).
The offensive improvement between 2001 and 2002 for the Red Raiders was staggering. It was year three of a new system with a quarterback who had started in every season and veteran players around him, and the experience showed.
Heading into 2022, Mississippi State has similar experience coming back. However, a big question is if Will Rogers can take a comparable step forward in year three to what Kliff Kingsbury did two decades ago.
Comparing Kliff Kingsbury and Will Rogers
The offensive production of Mike Leach’s teams are predicated on the performance of the starting quarterback. Leach’s early teams at Texas Tech steadily improved as Kliff Kingsbury progressed, and there is no difference with Will Rogers at Mississippi State.
2001 was Kingsbury’s second season as the starter in Lubbock, and 2021 was Rogers’ second as the starter in Starkville. Kingsbury had a dramatic jump between his second and third seasons, but could Rogers do the same this fall?
In 2021, Rogers completed 505 passes in 683 attempts for 4,739 yards with 36 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He finished the year with a 73.9% completion percentage and 9.4 yards per completion.
Comparing 2001 and 2021, Rogers led Kingsbury in the following categories: completions, attempts, completion percentage, yards, and touchdowns. Rogers had 1,237 more yards and 11 more touchdowns. Rogers trailed Kingsbury in yards per completion, but by only 0.2 yards. Despite attempting 154 more passes, Rogers led Kingsbury in completion percentage and threw the same number of interceptions.
Statistically, Will Rogers had a more productive second-year campaign than Kliff Kingsbury. Is it possible for Rogers to exceed Kingsbury in year three? Looking at the past improvement between the two, it seems likely.
2002 Texas Tech and 2022 Mississippi State
Mike Leach’s third season in Lubbock proved fruitful, as the Red Raiders made a significant jump from the year prior. Tech finished the season 9-5, 5-3 in the Big 12, with a 55-15 throttling of Clemson in the Tangerine Bowl.
One notable fact about that 2002 season was Texas Tech’s schedule. By year’s end, they had faced seven ranked teams, five of which in the top 20. Despite this, the Red Raiders’ win total actually improved by two from the previous season.
Furthermore, to demonstrate the production of Tech’s offense that year, their record improved despite having one of the worst defenses in the country (that defensive unit gave up 31.4 points per game, which ranked 89th nationally).
One of the biggest obstacles for Mississippi State entering 2022 is the difficulty of their schedule. State hits the road to face LSU, Kentucky, Alabama, and Ole Miss in addition to home games against Texas A&M, Arkansas, Auburn, and Georgia.
By season’s end, the Bulldogs could face seven ranked teams... at least. Looking back, however, Leach’s third team at Texas Tech faced the same number with improved results.
Using the Past to Look Ahead
There are many similarities between Mike Leach’s programs at Texas Tech and Mississippi State. Just like the Red Raiders, the Bulldogs have shown improvement in each season and return a plethora of starters headed to year three.
Mississippi State remains an under-appreciated team in college football with many pundits raising more negatives than positives. Looking at the past as a reference, however, Mike Leach’s team could show significant improvement in year three.