It's the final weekend of the SEC season, and Mississippi State welcomes the #1 ranked Tennessee Volunteers to Dudy Noble Field. Mississippi State currently sits at 9-18 in SEC play, the 13th seed in the SEC, and sits one game behind Kentucky at 10-17 for the 12th seed and 1.5 games behind Alabama for the 11th seed.

For a Mississippi State club coming off a national championship a season ago and ranked in the Top 5 entering 2022, missing the conference tournament would be a major disappointment. However, there are a few scenarios for State to sneak in, but it won't be an easy feat for a State team that has lost its last eight SEC games.

Scenarios with Alabama:

What makes things difficult here is that Alabama had a game rained out with Auburn that won't be made up, which means they will only have played 29 SEC games. Mississippi State would have held the tiebreaker because they took the series from the Tide back in March, but since they won't have played the same amount of games, the two teams can't finish in a tie.

If the final spot came between Mississippi State and Alabama, State would get in if:

Arkansas sweeps Alabama, Mississippi State needs to win two or more against Tennessee.

Alabama wins one game against Arkansas, Mississippi State needs to sweep Tennessee.

Alabama wins two games or sweeps Arkansas. Mississippi State has no scenario where they could jump Alabama.

Scenarios with Kentucky:

Since Mississippi State did not face Kentucky this year, the tiebreaker goes down to how each team did against the #1 seed, and since the Wildcats took two of three from the Volunteers in their series, breaking this tiebreaker will be a difficult task for State.

If the final spot came between Mississippi State and Kentucky, State would get in if:

Auburn sweeps Kentucky, Mississippi State needs to win two of three against Tennessee. If they win only one, Kentucky would have the tiebreaker.

If Kentucky wins one game against Auburn and Mississippi State wins two of three against Tennessee.

This scenario would mean both Mississippi State and Kentucky have the same record and the same record against Tennessee, so the tiebreaker goes to the next highest seeded common opponent. That team could be either Texas A&M or Arkansas. If Arkansas finishes ahead, Mississippi State would get the tiebreaker as State went 1-2 and Kentucky went 0-3 against the Razorbacks. If Texas A&M finished ahead, Kentucky would get the tiebreaker as State went 0-3 and Kentucky went 1-2 against the Aggies.

If Kentucky wins one game against Auburn and Mississippi State sweeps Tennessee.

If Kentucky wins two games against Auburn, Mississippi State needs to sweep Tennessee.

If Kentucky sweeps Auburn, Mississippi State has no scenario where they could jump Kentucky.

Missouri could make things interesting

Missouri sits one game back from Mississippi State and, unfortunately for the Bulldogs, holds the tiebreaker as State lost their series with the Tigers this season. Mississippi State needs to win at least one game to have a shot, which means, at the very minimum, Missouri needs to win two of three against Georgia this weekend.

The final spot could come down to State and Missouri if either Alabama or Kentucky were to get swept, and State would need to out-win Missouri since the Tigers hold the tiebreaker.

If Missouri wins two of three against Georgia: Mississippi State needs to win at least two of three against Tennessee.

If Missouri sweeps Georgia, Mississippi State needs to sweep Tennessee.

3-Way Tie

If Alabama were to be swept by Arkansas, there is a scenario where Mississippi State, Missouri, and Kentucky could all be tied at 11-19. For this to happen, Mississippi would have won two of three against Tennessee, Missouri would have swept Georgia, and Kentucky would have lost 2 of three to Auburn. In this case, the tiebreaker goes to the two teams with the best records against #1 seed Tennessee. Missouri was swept by Tennessee this season, which would eliminate them, meaning Kentucky and Mississippi State would get in; as in this scenario, both teams would have gone 2-1 against the Vols.

To recap, there is no scenario where Mississippi State gets in if they don't win at least two games against Tennessee. Tony Vitello's Vols have dropped just one series all season, so it's going to take a near-perfect weekend from Mississippi State to get the job done.