Ken Pomeroy is arguably the king of college basketball analytics in 2022. The University of Utah atmospheric sciences professor's website kenpom.com has been a key tool for anyone interested in college basketball, from sports bettors, oddsmakers, and fans alike.
Pomeroy's power ratings use the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency from a points-per-100 possesions perspective for all 363 teams in Division-1 basketball.
Last season Mississippi State finished as Pomeroy's 49th-ranked team with an offensive efficiency of 109.7 (56th) and defensive efficiency of 95.8 (46th) for an adjusted efficient margin of 13.86, and he has them rated similarly in this season in year one under Chris Jans.
Similar but different
Pomeroy currently has the Bulldogs power rated as the 53rd-best team in the country, and he projects an offensive efficiency of 106.4 (55th) and defensive efficiency of 91.7 (47th) for an adjusted efficiency margin of 14.69.
Pomeroy has this year's Bulldog team power rated within a point of last year's squad, but under a new head coach, there could be a completely different way of getting that result.
Last season Chris Jans' New Mexico State squad finished 80th in the country overall with a 10.61 adjusted efficiency margin. There are a few notable differences between Ben Howland's Bulldogs and Chris Jans' Aggies.
While both teams were middle of the pack in terms of tempo, New Mexico State shot the three-ball much better than Mississippi State. The Aggies shot 33.4%, which ranked 194th, and the Bulldogs shot 29.5%, which ranked 342nd and in the bottom 25 of the country. New Mexico State tended to play a much more outside game than Mississippi State did, scoring 32.1% of their points from three, 49.0% from two, and 18.9% from the free throw line, while Mississippi State scored only 19.7% of their points from three 58.7% from two, and 21.7% on free throws.
Mississippi State ranked 14th overall in the percentage of points scored from two and 22nd in the percentage of points scored from the free throw line under Howland, and the numbers show that they could have a much more balanced attack under Chris Jans.
Outlook on 2022-23
Pomeroy projects Mississippi State to finish 15-14 this season. The non-conference schedule is a favorable one for the Bulldogs, and they're projected to be a winner in every matchup except for one, as Pomeroy has TCU as a 69-68 winner in the SEC/Big 12 challenge on Jan. 28.
Other key non-conference games include a 72-70 win projected win over Marquette in the Fort Myers Tip-off. Depending on the result of the game, they'll face either Georgia Tech or Utah. Pomeroy has Mississippi State power rated 9.44 points better than Georgia Tech and 3.28 points better than Utah.
Pomeroy also projects a 71-68 victory over Minnesota on the road, a revenge game after the Golden Gophers went into Starkville and picked up a win last season, and a 72-70 win over Drake in Lincoln, NE.
The SEC schedule could be more favorable for the Bulldogs, with a projected finish of 7-11 in the conference. The one thing on the Bulldogs' side is their home-court advantage, as Pomeroy says Mississippi State gets a 3.7-point edge in Humphrey Coliseum.
The home-court advantage will play an important factor this season as Pomeroy projects a 6-3 home record in conference but a 1-8 road record. Pomeroy projects a splits on the season with Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Missouri picking up a win in Starkville but falling in Oxford and the two Columbias.
Pomeroy's numbers also project home victories over LSU, Texas A&M, and Florida, with a road win at Georgia and a tight road loss to Vanderbilt. Mississippi State is projected to lose both its home and road matchups with Tennessee and Alabama and is projected to fall to Arkansas and Auburn on the road and Kentucky at home.
