The Major League Baseball Draft begins this Sunday, and a plethora of current and future Diamond Dogs are hoping to hear their names called, so step inside and get everything you need to know about Mississippi State and the MLB Draft.
What to Know
The key thing to watch with high school prospects is if they are selected in the Top 10 rounds. Major League clubs have a larger money allotment pool in the Top 10 than they do in the bottom 10, so typically, high school prospects or college underclassmen with leverage hear their names called in the top 10 rounds, while older college players with less leverage are the more common selections in rounds 11-20.
It is also important to note that contract discussions typically happen before a player is selected. If a high school prospect is selected in the top 10 rounds, they are almost certain to sign, and if a player is not selected, it doesn't mean that clubs weren't interested, but rather, teams couldn't meet the prospect's asking price.
Signees to Watch
Chris Lemonis welcomes the 6th ranked recruiting class according to Perfect Game and of the 22 high school and junior college signees, six are among the prospects that could be selected in the MLB Draft according to MLB Pipeline, Prospects Live, and ESPN.
Jett Williams, SS, Rockwall-Heath HS (TX)
MLB Pipeline Top 250: 21
Prospects Live Top 600: 36
ESPN Top 300: 14
The only player on this list who didn't enroll in summer classes at MSU is almost a sure thing to be selected in the first round. Barring something unforeseen, the Texas native should see a large signing bonus hit his checking account and will be playing his baseball in the minor leagues.
Odds he plays at Mississippi State: Less than 5%
Bradley Loftin, LHP, DeSoto Central HS (MS)
MLB Pipeline Top 250: 77
Prospects Live Top 600: 296
ESPN Top 300: 139
A large disparity in rankings has the southpaw projected between the 3rd and 10th rounds. While a 3rd-round grade may frighten some Bulldog fans, Loftin declined his invite to the MLB Combine last month, which could point to a positive outcome for MSU. There is a good chance Loftin will follow the footsteps of Cade Smith, Keegan and Kamren James, and Spencer Price as DeSoto Central alumni to wear the Maroon & White. The lefty with a mid-90s fastball and a plus changeup should immediately impact Scott Foxhall's pitching staff.
Odds he plays at Mississippi State: 65%
Jurrangelo Cijntje, BHP, Chamagnat Catholic (FL), Willemstad, Curaçao
MLB Pipeline Top 250: N/A
Prospects Live Top 600: 292
ESPN Top 300: 184
Arguably the most intriguing prospect in the Draft is both-handed pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje. The product of Curaçao can throw in the mid-to-upper 90s with his right and the low 90s with his left. Projected from anywhere from the 6th round to outside the top 10 rounds, Cijntje is a player Mississippi State fans should keep their eye on. The stuff is there, but his 5'11" 167-pound frame could see him slip. Teams will be willing to take a shot on the ambidextrous 19-year-old, and it'll come down to how much he is willing to sign for. As of right now, whether Cijntje becomes a Bulldog or not is really up in the air, but already having enrolled at MSU could help Chris Lemonis' case.
Odds he plays at Mississippi State: 70%
Colby Holcombe, RHP, Northeast Mississippi C.C., Florence, AL
MLB Pipeline Top 250: 134
Prospects Live Top 600: 252
ESPN Top 300: 224
The 6'7" right-hander had a dominant freshman season for NEMCC with a 2.60 ERA with 115 strikeouts and 31 walks in 65.2 innings, including four complete games. With Holcombe projected in the 4th to 8th rounds, it will all come down to how much the 19-year-old is willing to sign for. Like Cijnjte, he is already enrolled at MSU, which could be a good sign but I expect Holcombe to be offered a larger signing bonus.
Odds he plays at Mississippi State: 55%
Ross Highfill, Catcher, Madison Central HS (MS)
MLB Pipeline Top 250: 197
Prospects Live Top 600: 284
ESPN Top 300: 273
The former Southern Miss commit is projected between the 6th and 10th rounds, and like Loftin, Highfill reportedly turned down his invite to the MLB Combine. It is more likely than not that Ross Highfill will be the heir apparent to Logan Tanner behind the dish. The athletic catcher is already a plus defender and has some power potential at the plate which would see him compete for the starting spot in Starkville next spring.
Odds he plays at Mississippi State: 90%
Dakota Jordan, Outfielder, Jackson Academy (MS)
MLB Pipeline Top 250: 177
Prospects Live Top 600: 426
ESPN Top 300: N/A
The Mississippi Gatorade Player of the Year and Mississippi State football commit is expected only to pursue baseball at the next level and is projected anywhere from the 6th round to outside the top 10 rounds. Based on those projections, it is likely that Jordan will be at Mississippi State next season. The 19-year-old will be draft-eligible after his sophomore season, and his mix of power at the plate and speed on the basepaths could make him a very good offensive threat from the jump.
Odds he plays at Mississippi State: 80%
Underclassmen Projections
The Bulldogs currently have seven sophomores and juniors that could potentially make the jump to the next level, but only two of them are sure-fire bets to move on.
Jr. RHP Landon Sims
MLB Pipeline Top 250: 44
Prospects Live Top 600: 52
ESPN Top 300: 50
Sims was one of the most dominant relievers in the nation as a sophomore and transitioned to a starting role as a junior. The righty looked to be on his way to another All-American campaign but suffered a season-ending torn UCL and had to go Tommy John Surgery after his 3rd start of the season. Sims had gotten some first-round buzz in the preseason, but his injury projects him to fall to round two. No matter where he's selected, Sims should see a large enough signing bonus to move on to the next level.
Odds he plays at Mississippi State: Less than 5%
Jr. Catcher Logan Tanner
MLB Pipeline Top 250: 41
Prospects Live Top 600: 64
ESPN Top 300: 87
Logan Tanner projects to be selected in the 2nd or 3rd rounds, and the catcher with an elite arm and good power in his bat should be ready to move on to professional baseball.
Odds he plays at Mississippi State: Less than 5%
So. RHP Jackson Fristoe
MLB Pipeline Top 250: N/A
Prospects Live Top 600: 321
ESPN Top 300: N/A
Jackson Fristoe hasn't quite lived up to expectations during his Mississippi State career. However, the talent is there for professional teams to be interested in the righty. The question is, how interested are they? The projections don't expect Fristoe in the Top 10 rounds. If a team were to take a shot on him and select him with their Top 10 bonus pool money, Fristoe would probably go, but I expect him to be drafted after the top 10 rounds, which should see him return to Mississippi State.
Odds he plays at Mississippi State: 80%
Jr. RHP KC Hunt
MLB Pipeline Top 250: N/A
Prospects Live Top 600: N/A
ESPN Top 300: N/A
KC Hunt battled injuries towards the beginning of the season and hit a wall in the homestretch, but his talent really flashed during the middle of the season and has shown his potential as a professional prospect. If Hunt is selected, it will likely be towards the end of the draft. I expect Hunt to be back at Mississippi State next season, and a healthy year could move him up into the top 10 rounds in 2023.
Odds he plays at Mississippi State: 95%
Jr. 3B/OF Kamren James
MLB Pipeline Top 250: N/A
Prospects Live Top 600: N/A
ESPN Top 300: 270
The projections on James are all over the place, with ESPN liking him in the 9th round and Prospects Live not seeing him being selected at all. The reality is that he is probably somewhere in between, and that's someone who won't be taken in the Top 10 rounds but will be picked. The 22-year-old junior may be ready to move on to professional baseball no matter what the money is, but a return to Mississippi State is still a potential scenario. James does have two more years of eligibility which means another year of leverage, and he could make enough money through NIL where a return could be appealing. I don't expect James back at Mississippi State, but I'm also not ruling out the possibility.
Odds he plays at Mississippi State: 25%
So. RHP Aaron Nixon (Texas Transfer)
MLB Pipeline Top 250: N/A
Prospects Live Top 600: 389
ESPN Top 300: N/A
The Texas transfer and former Freshman All-American had a shaky sophomore season with his command as his walks more than doubled. His stuff is there for a team to take a shot on him, but it will most likely be outside the Top 10 rounds. Nixon will likely make his way to Starkville next fall and if he can bounce back to his freshman self, could see a large jump in the 2023 draft.
Odds he plays at Mississippi State: 90%
So. OF Kellum Clark
MLB Pipeline Top 250: N/A
Prospects Live Top 600: N/A
ESPN Top 300: N/A
Kellum Clark has shown his power at the plate during his two years in Starkville, hitting 14 home runs and 12 doubles as a sophomore, but a 21% strikeout rate may see him go undrafted. The Brandon, MS, native is not projected to be selected, but even if he does, he will likely be back at Mississippi State as a big year with improved contact could see him move up draft boards in 2023.
Odds he plays at Mississippi State: 99%
One Last Ride?
With the 2020 season cut short due to Covid-19, players were granted an extra year of eligibility, leaving the door open to five Bulldog seniors returning for one last ride. The group includes RHP Brandon Smith, RHP Preston Johnson, RHP Parker Stinnett, 1B/C Luke Hancock, and OF Brad Cumbest.
Only three of those players (Johnson, Stinnett, Cumbest) are projected to be selected, with Cumbest being a lock to be picked. As for the other four, if these players are drafted, they will almost undoubtedly sign. If they aren't selected, a return to Mississippi State is in the realm of possibility. These players could also take the route Houston Harding took last year as an undrafted free agent, but the NIL money at Mississippi State could be more appealing.
Smith: 50%
Johnson: 35%
Stinnett: 35%
Hancock: 45%
Cumbest: 5%
