The #16 Mississippi State Bulldogs will look to add to its 3-game winning streak this week as they'll travel up to Lexington to face #22 Kentucky.
The Bulldogs got the best of the Wildcats last year with one of their most complete performances of the 2021 season, coming out of it with a 31-17 win, but they haven't faired so well on the road in this matchup in recent years.
In State's last three trips up to Lexington, the ended up leaving with a loss, so they'll need to take advantage of some matchup's to get their first win at Kroger Field since 2014.
1) Apply Pressure
One of the key things that the Bulldogs can take advantage of is the Kentucky offensive line. The "Big Blue Wall" has not lived up to its reputation this season, surrendering an SEC-high 25 sacks through six games.
It's a matchup that Defensive Coordinator Zach Arnett will expect to win with his different blitz packages out of his 3-3-5 scheme. The Bulldogs are currently tied for 4th in the SEC with 14 sacks on the season. Linebackers Tyrus Wheat and Bookie Watson have combined for five sacks this year, and Arnett should rely heavily on those two to wreak havoc defensively.
Additionally, there are some injuries on the Kentucky side that the Bulldogs will need to take advantage of. Quarterback Will Levis has been one of the most efficient passers in college football but missed last week's game with a foot injury. He's expected to play this week, but if he's not 100% healthy, he won't be as mobile, so getting pressure on him will be even more important.
Starting right tackle Jeremy Flax also missed last week's game, and his status for this week is still in question. South Carolina sacked Kentucky six times last week in Flax's absence, so it could be a matchup to target.
2) Stop the Run
Kentucky running back Chris Rodriguez made a name for himself as one of the top running backs in the SEC last season, rushing for 1,378 yards and ten touchdowns. The senior missed the first four games of this season with a suspension but has picked up where he left off since returning, rushing for 198 yards in his first two games.
Kentucky may need to lean more on the run in this matchup with their pass protection struggles. The Wildcats' top two receivers, Tayvion Robinson and Dane Key, who have combined for 683 yards and six touchdowns, both exited last week's game with injuries, and if they're unable to go, Kentucky's rushing attack will be even more important.
Mississippi State did an excellent job shutting down Rodriguez last season, holding him to 34 yards, but they haven't been quite as stout against the run this year. The Bulldogs' defense ranked 12th in the nation against the run last season at 113.4 yards per game but has regressed to 63rd this year, allowing 138.5 yards per game. They'll need to be better in this aspect to come away with a win, but facing a team who's quarterback won't be doing a lot of running could be beneficial here.
3) Take What the Defense Gives You
This was pretty much the strategy that State took against Kentucky last season, and it ended up as a 31-17 victory for the Bulldogs. Will Rogers was near-perfect in his decision-making, completing 36 of 39 passes for 344 yards and one touchdown. The 92.3% completion rate set an SEC record, but it was the running game that set everything up as they kept the Wildcats honest with a season-high 35 times.
Mississippi State has done an excellent job doing that recently. They've rushed for 317 yards over the past two games, the most in the Mike Leach era, and it's allowed Will Rogers to throw for 724 yards and six touchdowns with zero interceptions during that stretch.
Rogers has become a master of the Air Raid offense, making more checks to runs at the line of scrimmage this season which has allowed him to hit more chunk plays down the field with the respect the defense needs to give to the run. It may be more difficult in a road environment, but if Rogers' pre-snap reads are what it's been the past two weeks, Mississippi State should leave Lexington with a win.
