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December 30, 2009
Thursday's Armed Forces Bowl looks a lot like last season's Armed Forces Bowl.
Air Force and Houston meet in a rematch of last season's bowl, which was won by Houston 34-28.
Actually, this will be the team's third meeting in the past 15 months. Houston and Air Force played during the regular season in 2008, with the Falcons taking a 31-28 decision. This will be Air Force's third trip in a row to the Armed Forces Bowl; the Falcons lost 42-36 to California in 2007.
This is Houston's fifth consecutive bowl appearance. That breaks the school record of four in a row set from 1978-81, when Bill Yeoman was coach. Last year's victory over Air Force was the only win during the streak.
WHO GETS THE EDGE?
Air Force rush offense vs. Houston rush defense: The Falcons have the nation's fourth-best rushing attack (273.6 ypg). Jared Tew and Asher Clark are the workhorse runners. Tew leads the squad with 797 yards. That should worry a porous Houston defense that ranks 112th in the nation (213.1 ypg) against the run. How will the Cougars get off the field?
Air Force pass offense vs. Houston pass defense: It rarely if ever has been about the pass at Air Force. This season is no different, as the Falcons don't ask QB Tim Jefferson to throw much in an attack that ranks 118th in the nation in passing yards per game (82.3). How is this for contrast: Jefferson has five TD passes, Houston's Case Keenum 43. That means Houston's leaky pass defense (229.6 ypg/77th) should be able to rest easy.
Houston rush offense vs. Air Force rush defense: The Cougars aren't built around the run, but Bryce Beall and Charles Sims have combined for 1,301 yards and 16 touchdowns. Air Force has been solid against the run, ranking 45th in the nation (136.1 ypg).
Houston pass offense vs. Air Force pass defense: Keenum loves to hook up with WR James Cleveland, Conference USA's newcomer of the year who caught 101 passes for 1,182 yards and 14 TDs. He is one of four Cougars wide receivers with at least 64 receptions. Twelve Cougars have caught at least 10 passes and seven have caught at least 20. Air Force has the top pass defense in the nation. Falcon CBs Reggie Rembert and Anthony Wright will be tested. And while the Falcons rank first in pass defense, BYU QB Max Hall torched them for 377 yards and five TDs in a 17-point win.
Air Force special teams vs. Houston special teams: The Falcons have a strong kicking duo with K Erik Soderberg and P Brandon Geyer. Rembert gives Air Force a dangerous option on kickoff returns. Tyron Carrier is one of C-USA's top return men. Matt Hogan has hit all 10 of his field-goal attempts.
Air Force coaching staff vs. Houston coaching staff: Houston's Kevin Sumlin is one of the nation's hottest young coaches. He earned C-USA coach of the year honors after leading the Cougars to wins over Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Mississippi State en route to winning the league's West Division. Cougars offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen is a hot commodity. Air Force's Troy Calhoun is a dynamic coach who has an impressive blend of NFL and college experience.
X-factor: Watch the turnover battle. These teams have been among the nation's best in turnover margin. Air Force ranks third in the nation, while Houston is 15th. Which team will be more error-free? That likely will determine who wins.
Air Force will win if: The Falcons' defense has been one of the country's best-kept secrets. Air Force's defense ranks 10th in the nation, yielding just 284.8 yards per game. That's the school's best ranking since 1966. And the defense yields just 15.3 points per game, its best mark since 1998. The Falcons don't have to shut down this prolific Houston offense. But Air Force needs to at least slow down the Cougars and control the clock with its ground game, which would keep the ball away from Houston.
Houston will win if: Keenum is hot. Houston's knows its defense is a liability and unable to consistently stop teams. That won't change in the bowl game. So that means Keenum and this offense will have to be clicking and scoring lots of points to pull out yet another victory. The bottom line: Expect Houston to pass ... a lot.
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